French President Emmanuel Macron invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to
Paris as his first foreign guest, while US President Donald Trump will attend
this year’s Bastille Day celebrations. By reaching out to two world leaders who
made no secret of their hope that he would never make it to the Élysée Palace,
Macron has set the stage for a new and ambitious French foreign policy.
The
message Macron is sending is that he will remain open to new opportunities for
compromise – talking to anyone who is willing, but without glossing over
disagreements. His foreign policy seeks to restore France’s central position on
the world stage, while remaining firmly committed to Europe.
Macron’s
foreign-policy effectiveness will depend on his ability to bring about a
domestic economic turnaround – a lesson learned from Macron’s predecessor
François Hollande. Beyond a military intervention against Islamist militants in
Mali, Hollande achieved little on the international stage, precisely because he
lacked credibility at home, owing to France’s economic weakness. It is too
early to tell whether Macron will succeed where Hollande failed.
But
it is already clear that Macron possesses some valuable skills and attributes
that his predecessor lacked: undeniable charisma, an ability to connect with
foreign leaders (thanks partly to his fluent English), a solid grasp of global
issues, and a drive to implement economic reform.
Macron
will also benefit from external factors. For starters, the economic situation
not only in France, but throughout Europe, has recently improved substantially.
Moreover, France and Germany seem to be converging on a large number of global
issues. Add to that the United Kingdom’s self-isolation and Trump’s erratic
“America first” polices, and Macron is in a strong position to establish
himself as a key champion of multilateralism.
Of
course, even if Macron does guide an economic turnaround, France will have
neither the means nor the ambition to supplant the US on the world stage. But
Macron does want France to exercise more influence over the international
system – an ambition that is underscored by the way he addresses Putin and
Trump.
Just
a couple of weeks after his election, Macron slammed Russian state-owned media
for employing “lying propaganda” to smear him during the campaign – while
standing right next to Putin himself. No French leader since Charles de Gaulle
would have dared to stand up to Russia in such a public way. From Macron’s
perspective, however, the disagreements that will shape the bilateral
relationship had to be laid out, and a clear power dynamic established, before
dialogue could occur.
The
major test of the Russia-France relationship lies in Syria – an issue that, so
far, Macron has handled skillfully. He intentionally set aside the question of
whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would remain in power (as Putin wants)
or be deposed (as the US and others desire), but also made it clear that France
would intervene militarily if Assad were to use chemical weapons again. It is
not yet clear whether Macron’s approach will succeed; but France has
reestablished itself, at least for now, as a player in Syria.
As
for Trump, Macron’s disagreement with him mostly concerns multilateral issues.
France and Europe place much stock in multilateralism, which supports burden
sharing. The Trump administration’s tendency toward trade protectionism – not
to mention financial deregulation – is therefore a source of serious concern.
But
it is Trump’s commitment to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement that is
most problematic to Macron, who plans to work with German Chancellor Angela
Merkel to bring about a US reversal. If this effort succeeds, Macron will have
established France as an effective advocate and practitioner of
multilateralism.
Macron
has another objective with regard to Trump: to prevent disagreements from
undermining their ability to pursue shared interests, especially in the fight
against terrorism. In Syria, for example, the French and US positions are
rather closely aligned, and Trump has already shown more willingness than his
predecessor, Barack Obama, to enforce a “red line” on the use of chemical
weapons. But Trump’s Syria policy remains confused, with few clear lines having
really been drawn and significant discrepancies between the claims of Trump and
his own cabinet.
-:
3 :-
Of
course, Trump’s threats of disengagement from NATO also worry France. But
France has always sought to maintain a capacity for strategic autonomy, and
Macron hopes that the weakening of the US strategic guarantee will convince
Europeans, who have long lagged on the establishment of a stronger common
defense posture, to do the same.
Considerable
economic, strategic, and cultural obstacles to the emergence of a European
defense posture no doubt remain, including among those within some French
industrial circles who oppose open tenders for defense contracts. But there are
signs of progress. Most notably, the European Commission has for the first time
decided to offer European funding for key military programs, especially in
research and development.
It
will take time to marshal not just the money, but also (and more challenging)
the political will. But rising uncertainty over America’s reliability –
together with the departure of the UK, which has long opposed European defense,
from the European Union – has already spurred Germany to acknowledge the need
for progress. And, of course, progress for Europe is progress for France, as
Europe acts as a multiplier of its national power.
There
is not yet a “Macron Doctrine.” But Macron’s foreign policy goals are coming
into focus: increase France’s credibility by reversing its economic decline;
bolster the Franco-German axis in Europe; strengthen Europe’s role in the
world; and engage with everyone. It is a realist approach – but certainly not a
cynical one.Zaki Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at L'Institut
d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po). Project Syndicate 1995–2017.
0 Comments
Post a Comment